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Pouco mais de um anos após o início do Levante no Egito e a queda de Mubarak, a população vai às urnas e dois candidatos se preparam para disputar o segundo turno: Mohammed Morsi, da Irmandade Muçulmana; e Ahmed Shafiq, ex-Primeiro Ministro e autoridade do regime de Mubarak. Os resultados revelam algumas coisas:

1) O baixo comparecimento da população às urnas poderia significar que os egípcios não consideram tão importante essas eleições? Ter-se-ia aí uma evidência de que, na percepção do homem comum, pouca coisa mudou ou vai mudar, independentemente de quem vier a ocupar a cadeira presidencial?

2) A Irmandade Muçulmana, apesar da vitória nas eleições parlamentares, e diante da real possibilidade de eleger o Presidente (em que pesem os menos de 25% dos votos, praticamente a mesma porcentagem do segundo colocado), não contará com apoio incondicional da população e tampouco dos demais agentes políticos, o que pode culminar em um governo frágil dentro de um modelo democrático – e os árabes não estão acostumados com governantes fracos. A alternativa pode ser uma radicalização do regime e o crescimento do fundamentalismo.

3) A reação de parte dos egípcios à escolha de  Shafiq para o segundo turno passa bem longe de qualquer exemplo de convivência com a democracia. Porem fogo no escritório do canditato e ameaçarem afundar mais o Egito no caos em uma eventual vitória de Shafiq, são sinais claros da pouca familiaridade dos egípcios com esse negócio de democracia. Quer dizer que se Morsi não ganhar não haverá governabilidade?

Morsi e a Irmandade deveriam ser os primeiros a protestarem contra o atentado aos escritórios de Shafiq, e esse tipo de reação dos apoiadores daqueles pode conduzir à vitória deste. E a frágil democracia no Egito encontra-se à prova…

BBC.CO.UK – 29 May 2012 Last updated at 00:31 GMT

Egypt presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq’s HQ attacked

The campaign headquarters of Egyptian presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq has been attacked. Egyptian TV stations broadcast footage of a fire at the building, in the Dokki district of the capital Cairo.

No injuries were reported, and the fire was quickly put out with no signs of serious damage.

The attack comes amid protests against election results hours after it was announced that Mr Shafiq would compete in a run-off next month.

Eight suspects were arrested near the headquarters, according to police.

The attackers also took a number of campaign posters and allegedly took a number of computers from the building, the BBC’s Jon Leyne reports from the headquarters.

Anti-Shafiq protesters then dispersed and a number of Mr Shafiq’s supporters then arrived at the scene, furious at the attack, our correspondent adds.

No-one knows who carried out the attack. Mr Shafiq is the candidate of law and order, so perversely, the more trouble there is, the more he could benefit, he adds.

Continue reading the main story

Analysis

image of Yolande Knell Yolande Knell BBC News, Tahrir Square


It is after midnight and a few young Egyptians are still arriving – taking the familiar route across Qasr al-Nil bridge in the darkness.

They say the presidential election result gave them no choice.

“We aren’t at all satisfied with Ahmed Shafiq, who was the prime minister of Mubarak in our revolution. We’ll never accept such a guy,” said Mustafa Shawat. “The other candidate is the Muslim Brotherhood and we don’t agree at all to be in their hands. We want our freedom.”

Some protesters have set up a new camp in the middle of this busy roundabout. Yet it remains to be seen how many will stay the night. A shout of “thugs” caused a few moments of panic and a surge of people turned away from the Interior Ministry. With tensions so high there are fears of renewed clashes.

‘Last chance’

Crowds were also heading to the city’s central Tahrir Square, scene of the protests which forced the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011 and frequent demonstrations ever since.

Several hundred people, perhaps as many as a thousand have gathered in the roundabout at the centre of the square, protesting against the official election results, the BBC’s Yolande Knell reports from the square.

A steady stream of protesters is continuing to head to the square despite the late hour, our correspondent adds.

Protests were also reported in Egypt’s second city of Alexandria, where left-wing candidate Hamdeen Sabahi topped the poll in the first round of voting last week.

Earlier on Monday, Egypt’s election commission confirmed that the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi and Mr Shafiq will contest a presidential run-off in June.

Mr Morsi gained 24.3% of the vote in the first round, while Mr Shafiq won 23.3%.

However, there is real anger at the results among many activists, our correspondent says.

Many are saying that they are prepared to stay in the square and that this is the “last chance” too save Egypt’s revolution.

Mr Shafiq was the last prime minister to serve under Mr Mubarak and is viewed by many as a representative of the old regime.

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